Project on future challenges for the Nordic countries’ welfare model

The report from the below project has now been completed. The report can be seen here

 

 

along with a description of the results under News. An English translation is expected mid-April 2010 at the latest.

 

 

In 2007 NOSOSCO received special funding from the Nordic Council of Ministers to carry out a statistical evaluation of challenges for the Nordic countries’ welfare model. Elisabeth Rønning and Tor Morten Nymand, Statistics Norway are leaders for the project
According to the welfare research programme of the Nordic Council of Ministers, there are many factors that influence welfare. NOSOSCO has chosen to investigate similarities and differences between the Nordic countries in different areas of welfare. The aim is to identify welfare-related challenges that are common to the Nordic countries, and challenges that are specific for the individual countries.

The project has four phases:
1. a review of the area
2. a description of the present situation
3. an analysis of challenges for the Nordic welfare states
4. a description of the Nordic model and comparison of the Nordic model with other models (EU/a sample of EU countries).

A reference group has been appointed for the project, consisting of NOSOSCO’s delegation leaders, and a contact group of experts on EU-SILC data from the Nordic countries.
A description of the project is given below.

1. Background
The background for the project is that the Nordic Statistical Committee has been asked to:

“evaluate and to put forward a proposal for a Nordic analysis of important welfare factors for meeting future challenges in a European perspective. The analysis shall be based on special characteristics that are relevant to the Nordic welfare model. The work shall be coordinated with relevant work in the EU, so that the knowledge base that is produced can be applied in future important policy discussions that all the Nordic countries will be involved in, regarding the development of the welfare system" (see the description of the project for more information).

A characteristic of the Nordic welfare model is that everyone has the right to receive welfare benefits. Everyone has the right to accommodation, employment, education and health care in the Nordic countries. The aim of the welfare model is to give everyone a minimum basis on which to live, and thus to provide security. However, there are factors that can create challenges for the Nordic welfare model in the next few years, both in relation to the cost and the legitimacy of the model. Examples of such factors are the increasing proportion of elderly people in the population, the increasing number of people of employable age who, for various reasons, are not in employment, early withdrawal from the labour market, increasing inequalities in society, and marginalization of high risk groups. These factors are common for all the Nordic countries.

By using data from EU-SILC, we wish to investigate some of the issues related to the Nordic welfare model, to describe the present situation in the Nordic countries, trends, and differences and similarities between the countries. We will also use data from other European countries with different welfare models to compare challenges faced by other systems.

The project will use data from Norway, Sweden, Finland, Island and Denmark, and where possible, this data will be used to compare the situation in these countries with the situation in other European countries.

1.1 Sources of data
EU-SILC is a sample survey carried out under the auspices of Eurostat, and is part of the strategy of the EU to combat poverty and social exclusion. All the EU and EEA countries participate. EU-SILC is basically a household survey, with a combined cross-sectional and panel design. Common for the Nordic countries is that data is a combination of register data and interview data. When the project is carried out in 2008, data will be available for the period 2004-2006.

The following themes are included in EU-SILC:

• Income
• Housing (type, size, standard and environment)
• Housing economy (ownership, expenses, house loan)
• Household economy (deprivation, subjective assessment of own economy, private transactions
• Child care (child care arrangements, number of hours per week for children 0-12 years of age)
• Health (self-assessed health, reduced functional ability, unmet needs for medical care or dental care – only for a sample of respondents)
• Employment (profession and business, working hours, mobility in and out of the labour market, subsidiary employment, main activity – where each month in the previous year)

In addition to these themes, there are additional modules each year:

• 2006 : Leisure-time activities, participation in cultural activities
• 2007: Standard of accommodation, housing economy (problems to meet expenses) availability of services
• 2008: Problems to meet expenses
• 2009: Material deprivation
  

2. Aims of the project
2.1 Short description of the project
Phase 1 – description of the model
Phase 1 of the project will involve describing similarities and differences between the Nordic countries within different areas of welfare. The purpose is to identify welfare-related challenges that are common to the Nordic countries, and challenges that are specific for the individual countries. In this phase of the project, we will compare the Nordic countries with other European countries that have different welfare models

Phase 2 – a description of the present situation
Phase 2 of the project will be descriptive. We will identify the important welfare areas and describe the situation in these areas in the Nordic countries. We will also make comparisons with other European countries. Important areas are employment, health and care, the social security system, income, housing and housing economy, and child care. We will need to use data in addition to EU-SILC data, but we assume that all countries have official statistics for these areas that are easily available.

Phase 3 – analysis of challenges
In Phase 3 of the project we will investigate the different areas, obtain an overview of available data and identify challenges for the Nordic welfare model. For each area we will:

A. obtain an overview of available data and find out which data are most suitable for analysing challenges. The main focus will be obtain an overview of EU-SILC data, but data from other sources will also be obtained and their suitability for analysing relevant areas will be assessed.
B. analyse relevant data to investigate how the different areas present challenges for the Nordic welfare model.

Provisionally we can point out the following areas:

• Demographic trends, and the increasing proportion of elderly people in the population
  o Employment among people aged over 60
  o The proportion and the number of people whose income is from social security and pensions
  o Income, sources of income and economic resources of elderly people
  o The health status of elderly people, in particularly the oldest elderly (85 years and over), if we have data for this
  o The need for different types for care of elderly people
  • Education, with a focus on “drop-outs”
  o The proportion of people who complete or fail to complete education at different levels
  o Living conditions for people with and without completed education 
    - Employment 
    -  Income and economic living conditions
• Marginalization in the labour market and exclusion from the labour market
  o Extent
  o Which groups are in danger of being marginalized or excluded from the labour market? 
    - Young people 
    - People with reduced functional ability / long-term illness 
    - Immigrants 
    - Elderly people (up to age 70)
  o Income, sources of income and economic living conditions for people who are marginalized in the labour market
  o Income, sources of income and economic living conditions for people who are excluded from the labour market
  o The health status of people who are marginalized in the labour market and people who are excluded from the labour market
• Employment and working hours
  o Who work most? Gender, age, profession, household composition etc.
  o Gender equality
• Occupational further training and further education
  o What are the needs for further training, and what proportion of employees are offered and/or participate in further education
  o To what degree can employees who leave employment participate in further training or further education, and how does this affect their ability to return to work?
• Health and care
  o General health status and high risk groups
  o Unmet needs for medical and dental care
  o The proportion of people who live on social security for health reasons
• Housing and housing economy
  o Inequalities in standard and size of housing
  o Housing expenses and how they effect private economy
• Income
  o The proportion of people with low income / high income – what are the characteristics of these groups
  o Gender differences in income
  o Subjective economy and material deprivation
  o The risk of being poor
• Children and child care
  o Demographic factors – their importance for individual and collective burden of care
    - Number of children per family
    - Number of adults who are childless
    - The age for having a first child
  o Different types of child care for children of different ages
  o Child care, economy and participation in employment
  o Child care in a gender equality perspective

Phase 4 – a description of the Nordic model and comparison with other models
In phase 4 of the project we will summarize the first three phases and attempt to identify the most important challenges for the Nordic welfare model from our point of view. We will carry out a short comparative analysis of these main challenges and look at other European countries that have different welfare systems (identified in Phase 1). The comparisons will be based on a model in which we will choose reference countries that represent different models, rather than making broad comparisons with all the EU countries.

 

Publications:

 

Normann, Tor Morten & Elisabeth Rønning (2008) EU-SILC (Norge) som kilde til å avgrense gruppen av personer med nedsatt funksjonsevne. Statistisk sentralbyrå 39

The publication is only available in Norwegian.